The Real Estate Waiting Game: Who Blinks First?

The Real Estate Waiting Game: Who Blinks First?

There's a funny thing that happens in real estate when the market slows down. Everyone starts waiting for everyone else. Buyers are waiting for prices to come down… Sellers are waiting for buyers to come back… And somewhere in the middle, there's a whole lot of people sitting on the sidelines wondering who's supposed to make the first move.

It's a bit like throwing a party where half the guests decide not to show up, but half the hosts have cancelled their parties anyway. There are fewer places to go, fewer people looking to go anywhere, and the whole thing feels a little... quiet. Welcome to a real estate market where supply and demand have both shrunk.

We spend a lot of time talking about buyer's markets and seller's markets. When there are lots of homes available and not enough buyers, buyers generally have the upper hand. When there are more buyers than available homes, sellers tend to have the advantage. But what happens when the number of homes for sale AND the number of people looking to buy them have both declined?

That's where things get interesting… And where people start to question everything (as they should be)…

Question 1: So Does That Mean it’s a Balanced Market?

One of the biggest misconceptions I hear is that fewer listings must mean less competition for sellers. Sometimes, that's true, but fewer listings don't tell us much on their own. We also need to know how many buyers are actively participating.

Think about it this way. If a neighbourhood typically has 100 homes for sale and 50 sell in a month, that's a very different market from one where 50 homes are for sale and only 10 sell. In the first scenario, homes are selling at a much faster pace relative to the available inventory. In the second, there are fewer listings, but demand has fallen even further. And that's the distinction that matters - it's not just how many homes are available. It's how many buyers are competing for those homes.

This is why I pay attention to things like months of inventory, the sales-to-new-listings ratio, days on market, and how many homes are actually selling compared to how many are being listed. A market can have declining inventory and still favour buyers. It can also have declining sales without necessarily experiencing significant price drops.

The relationship between supply and demand matters much more than either number on its own.

Question 2: Why Has Everyone Been Sitting on the Sidelines?

For buyers, the hesitation is fairly easy to understand. Affordability remains a concern, economic uncertainty makes people cautious, and there's always that nagging thought: What if I buy now and prices drop further?

Sellers have their own version of the same concern: What if I list now and don't get the price I want? What if I wait until spring? What if the market improves?

And for homeowners who need to sell before buying, those two concerns become intertwined. They don't want to sell for less than they expected, but they're also reluctant to buy until they know what their current home is worth - so they wait.

And as more people have made that same decision, market activity has slowed on both sides. The interesting part is that this doesn't necessarily mean people have stopped wanting to move. Life hasn't stopped happening. Families are still growing, people are changing jobs, downsizing, separating, retiring, and looking for something different.

The motivation is still there. The confidence to act on it isn't always.

Question 3: Where Are the Opportunities for Buyers?

Here's where I think things get overlooked. When people hear that inventory has declined, they sometimes assume there are fewer opportunities to buy. But opportunity isn't just about having hundreds of listings to choose from. It's also about the level of competition you're facing for the homes that ARE available.

In a quieter market, a buyer might have more time to make a decision, negotiate conditions, complete their due diligence, or revisit a property without feeling like they need to make an offer within hours of walking through the door.

And some sellers are much more motivated than others. A homeowner who is simply testing the market might be perfectly happy to wait. But someone who has already purchased another property, is relocating for work, or needs to settle an estate may be more willing to negotiate. Keep in mind that doesn't mean every seller is desperate or that every property is available at a discount. Far from it. But it does mean that understanding a seller's circumstances can sometimes be just as valuable as understanding the comparable sales.

There's also something to be said for buying when everyone else is hesitant. If the market eventually picks up and more buyers return before inventory increases proportionately, the negotiating advantage buyers currently enjoy in certain segments could disappear fairly quickly.

Of course, nobody knows exactly when that shift will happen. And buying a home solely because you think you've timed the bottom of the market is rarely a great strategy. But if you're financially comfortable, planning to stay for a while, and find a property that genuinely works for you, a quieter market may offer opportunities that weren't available when everyone was competing for the same listings.

Question 4: What About Sellers?

This is where the conversation gets a little more nuanced. A slower market doesn't automatically mean it's a bad time to sell. Remember, as sellers have pulled back, they've also reduced the number of homes buyers have to choose from.

If you're selling a well-maintained, properly priced home in a neighbourhood where there are very few comparable properties available, you may actually benefit from that lack of competition. But there's a catch: less competition doesn't give you permission to overprice. In fact, I'd argue that pricing becomes even more important when demand is lower. When there are fewer active buyers, you have fewer opportunities to make a strong first impression. If your property enters the market at a price buyers don't see as reasonable, you may not get enough showings to generate meaningful feedback, let alone an offer. And unlike a busy market, where a new wave of buyers might arrive every weekend, a slower market can leave an overpriced listing sitting for quite some time.

The opportunity for sellers isn't necessarily to get more money. It's to stand out: good presentation, realistic pricing, strong marketing, and an understanding of what buyers actually value become even more important when the buyer pool is smaller.

With buyers waiting for sellers and sellers waiting for buyers, the obvious final question is: who makes the first move? And I think the answer depends less on what the overall market is doing and more on what you're actually trying to accomplish.

For homeowners who are selling to buy something else, it's worth remembering that the sale price is only half the equation. You might not get what your home would have sold for a few years ago, but you may also be paying less for the next one. For example, if your current home is worth $800,000 and you're looking to buy at $1.2 million, that's a $400,000 difference. If both properties were worth 10% more in a stronger market, that gap would be $440,000. It's a simplified example, and different segments don't always move together, but it shows why looking at the entire transaction matters.

And that's really the point: a quieter market doesn't necessarily mean fewer opportunities, it means you need to look a little harder to recognize them. What's happening with detached homes in Oakville may be completely different from condos in Burlington or townhomes in Hamilton. There isn't one market, and there certainly isn't one answer that works for everyone…

So, should you be the one to make the first move? Maybe. Maybe not. But I'd be careful about waiting simply because everyone else is. The goal isn't to perfectly time the market. It's to understand whether the conditions in your particular market make sense for the move you want to make. Because sometimes the opportunity isn't waiting for the market to change - it's recognizing what the market is offering you right now.